Prediction scorecard
Every warning call or prediction is logged at posting time and scored when its window closes. A call is never edited after the fact. Outcomes are Hit, Partial, Miss, or Void (untestable or overtaken by events).
75%Hit rate
3Hits
0Partial
1Misses
0Void
17Open
21Calls logged
4Resolved and scored
Hit rate is hits plus half of partials, divided by hits + partials + misses (3 / 4 after that rounding). Voids are excluded. Confidence in the log is qualitative (for example “Moderate”), so no Brier score is computed.
Open calls
| ID | Call | Posted | Resolve by | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIC-007 · Estimate · Bluesky | DigitalOcean Q3 2026 results (Framework Friday running estimate: Helmer's 7 Powers, challenger cloud vs hyperscalers) In DigitalOcean's Q3 2026 report (scheduled Nov 3, 2026, pre-market), Q3 revenue is at least $307.0M (top of the $304-307M guide, ~33.7% over Q3 2025's $229.6M) AND the FY2026 revenue outlook midpoint is raised above $1.175B (current guide $1.170-1.180B). Both = Hit; one = Partial; neither = Miss. Void if DOCN hasn't reported Q3 2026 by Nov 10, 2026 or stops giving FY26 revenue guidance. |
Open | ||
| VIC-012 · Estimate · Bluesky | Shopify Q3 2026 results (War-game Wednesday running estimate: agentic-commerce checkout fight, Shopify open via Shop MCP/UCP vs Amazon closed) In Shopify's Q3 2026 report (Nov 3, 2026, before market open), reported revenue is at least $3,783M (+33% y/y on Q3 2025's $2,844M, the top of the "low-thirties" guide) AND reported GMV is at least $119,600M (~+30% y/y on $92,013M). Both = Hit; one = Partial; neither = Miss. Void if Shopify hasn't reported Q3 2026 by Nov 10, 2026; if GMV isn't disclosed, score on revenue alone (Hit/Miss). |
Open | ||
| VIC-014 · Estimate · Bluesky | Toast Q3 2026 results after the FTC/multistate lawsuit (Framework Friday running estimate: Ansoff matrix on Toast's growth cells; suit targets the product-development/attach cell) In Toast's Q3 2026 report (scheduled Nov 3, 2026, after the close), non-GAAP subscription services and financial technology solutions gross profit ("recurring gross profit") is at least $635M ($10M over the top of the $615-625M guide) AND the FY2026 recurring gross profit outlook midpoint is raised above $2,340M (current guide $2,325-2,355M). Both = Hit; one = Partial; neither = Miss. Void if Toast hasn't reported Q3 2026 by Nov 10, 2026; if FY26 recurring GP guidance is discontinued, score on Leg A alone (Hit/Miss). |
Open | ||
| VIC-009 · Estimate · Bluesky | DHL Group Q3 2026 results, Express division (Signal Sunday running estimate on the Oct 16 guidance raise) In DHL Group's full Q3/9M 2026 report (Nov 5, 2026), DHL Express Q3 TDI weight per day is up at least 8.0% y/y AND DHL Express Q3 EBIT margin (as reported) is at least 14.5%. Both = Hit; one = Partial; neither = Miss. Void if DHL hasn't published by Nov 12, 2026; if Q3 TDI weight per day isn't disclosed, Leg A is void and the call is scored on Leg B alone (Hit/Miss). |
Open | ||
| VIC-015 · Estimate · Bluesky | Uber Q3 2026 results and the Delivery Hero tender close (SWOT Saturday running estimate: platform scale vs deal execution, AV aggregator thesis, regulator-paced M&A) In Uber's Q3 2026 report (Nov 4, 2026; call 8:00 AM ET), reported Gross Bookings are at least $60,250M (the top of the $58.25-60.25B guide) AND, by Nov 12, 2026, Uber (or its bidder subsidiary) announces that the Delivery Hero takeover offer (EUR 41.50/share; acceptance period ending Nov 5, 2026) met its minimum acceptance threshold of 50% plus one share. Both = Hit; one = Partial; neither = Miss. Leg B: a waiver of the threshold or offer withdrawal/lapse = leg fails; if the acceptance period is extended (e.g., by an offer amendment), Leg B is judged on the extended period's result announced by Nov 30, 2026. If Uber hasn't reported Q3 2026 by Nov 11, 2026, score on Leg B alone (Hit/Miss); Void only if neither leg can be determined by Nov 30, 2026. |
Open | ||
| VIC-016 · Estimate · Bluesky | CoreWeave Q3 2026 results amid October credit repricing (Signal Sunday running estimate: debt-funded neocloud buildout, refinancing cost, customer concentration, hyperscaler bridging demand) In CoreWeave's Q3 2026 report (Nov 10, 2026; call 5:00 PM ET), reported Q3 revenue is at least $3,525M (the midpoint of the $3.45-3.60B guide) AND the FY2026 revenue guidance midpoint is at or above $12.8B (i.e., the $12.4-13.2B range is not lowered at the midpoint). Both = Hit; one = Partial; neither = Miss. Leg B: withdrawal of FY2026 revenue guidance = leg fails; if only a Q4 revenue guide is given, Leg B is judged on Q1-Q3 actuals plus the Q4 guide midpoint vs $12.8B. Void if CoreWeave has not reported Q3 2026 by Nov 17, 2026. |
Open | ||
| VIC-020 · Estimate · Bluesky | Cisco fiscal Q1 2027 results (Signal Sunday running estimate: networking supercycle and hyperscaler AI ramp vs memory-driven margin pressure, inventory/commitment build, and Arista in AI networking) In Cisco's fiscal Q1 2027 report (quarter ended Oct 24, 2026; released after the close Thu Nov 12, 2026; call 4:30 PM ET), total revenue is at least $18,200M (the top of the $18.0-18.2B guide; scored on the income-statement figure in millions, not the rounded headline) AND the FY2027 revenue guidance midpoint is raised above $72.8B (the $72.2-73.4B range; reaffirmed or lowered = leg fails). Both = Hit; one = Partial; neither = Miss. Withdrawal of FY27 revenue guidance = Leg B fails. Void if Cisco has not reported fiscal Q1 2027 by Nov 19, 2026. |
Open | ||
| VIC-013 · Estimate · Bluesky | ConnectWise Cloud Backup / SaaS Security / Cloud Management restoration (Threat-model Thursday running estimate: vendor multitenant app identity risk after the Cloud Backup app-credential compromise) By Nov 20, 2026, ConnectWise (Trust Center advisory or status page) reports all four Cloud Backup restore phases live through Phase 4 (Notifications) or Cloud Backup "Operational" AND SaaS Security and Cloud Management back in service or "Operational". Both = Hit; one = Partial; neither = Miss. A product retired instead of restored = Miss on that leg. Void if ConnectWise publishes no status for these services. |
Open | ||
| VIC-003 · Estimate · Bluesky | Palo Alto Networks fiscal Q1 2027 results, after entering identity security via CyberArk (Idira) (Market Entry Monday running estimate) In PANW's fiscal Q1 2027 report (quarter ended Oct 31, 2026), Idira revenue is at least $340M AND NGS ARR is at or above $9.56B (top of guidance). Both legs = Hit; one = Partial; neither = Miss. Void if Idira isn't broken out or no report by resolve date. |
Open | ||
| VIC-010 · Estimate · Bluesky | Zscaler fiscal Q1 2027 results (Market Entry Monday running estimate on Zscaler's SOC entry via Red Canary and Agentic SOC) In Zscaler's fiscal Q1 2027 report (expected ~Nov 24, 2026), revenue is at least $949M ($10M over the top of Q1 guidance) AND the FY27 ARR guide midpoint is raised above $4.411B. Both = Hit; one = Partial; neither = Miss. Void if no report by Dec 4, 2026; if FY27 ARR guidance is discontinued, score on revenue alone (Hit/Miss). |
Open | ||
| VIC-019 · Estimate · Bluesky | Okta Q3 FY27 results (SWOT Saturday running estimate: identity control plane for humans and AI agents vs hyperscaler bundles / endpoint ADR) In Okta's fiscal Q3 2027 report (Dec 1, 2026, after the close), total revenue is at least $817M (top of the $813-817M guide) AND current RPO (cRPO) is at least $2.600B (top of the $2.590-2.600B guide). Both = Hit; one = Partial; neither = Miss. Void if Okta has not reported fiscal Q3 2027 by Dec 8, 2026. |
Open | ||
| VIC-017 · Estimate · Bluesky | SentinelOne fiscal Q3 2027 results, after entering AI-agent runtime security with Singularity Agentic Detection and Response (Market Entry Monday running estimate: endpoint vendors vs identity vendors for the agent kill switch) In SentinelOne's fiscal Q3 2027 report (quarter ended Oct 31, 2026; expected ~Dec 3, 2026, unconfirmed), reported ARR is at least $1,275M (implying net new ARR of ~$57M vs ~$54M a year earlier, my calc) AND the FY2027 revenue guidance midpoint is raised above $1.2045B (the $1.202-1.207B range; reaffirmed or lowered = leg fails). Both = Hit; one = Partial; neither = Miss. If ARR is no longer disclosed, Leg A is void and the call is scored on Leg B alone; withdrawal of FY revenue guidance = Leg B fails. Void if SentinelOne has not reported fiscal Q3 2027 by Dec 15, 2026. |
Open | ||
| VIC-018 · Estimate · Bluesky | DigiCert archive-system exposure after Feb 2025 migration (Framework Friday running estimate: Reason Swiss cheese / change-control) By Dec 15, 2026, DigiCert marks Action Item 12 ("Confirm by internal audit that no business system origin server is externally accessible") Complete in Mozilla Bug 2084460 AND publishes a numeric count of affected customers or individuals in a bug comment, customer notice, or IR update. Both = Hit; one = Partial; neither = Miss. Void if Bug 2084460 is closed/resolved without those fields and no public numeric count exists by the resolve date. |
Open | ||
| VIC-021 · Estimate · Bluesky | Rubrik fiscal Q3 2027 results, after entering hosted backup storage for on-prem enterprise NAS (Market Entry Monday running estimate: Rubrik-Hosted Protection for On-Premises Unstructured Data, GA Nov 3, 2026 - hosting cost vs gross margin, implied net new ARR slowdown, Commvault and data-protection incumbents) In Rubrik's fiscal Q3 2027 report (quarter ending Oct 31, 2026; expected ~Thu Dec 3, 2026 after the close, date unconfirmed), subscription ARR is at least $1,770M (scored on the exact figure in the release's subscription ARR / contribution-margin table, not a rounded headline) AND the FY2027 subscription ARR guidance midpoint is raised above $1,882.5M (the $1,880-1,885M range; reaffirmed or lowered = leg fails). Both = Hit; one = Partial; neither = Miss. Withdrawal of FY27 ARR guidance = Leg B fails. Void if Rubrik has not reported fiscal Q3 2027 by Dec 18, 2026. |
Open | ||
| VIC-006 · Estimate · Bluesky | CISA KEV catalog 2026 additions (Threat-model Thursday running estimate on CVE volume vs exploitability) When CISA's KEV JSON feed is downloaded on Jan 7, 2027, it lists at least 330 entries with dateAdded in 2026 (Jan 1-Dec 31 inclusive). >=330 = Hit; 310-329 = Partial; <=309 = Miss. Void if the feed (or an official CISA successor feed with dateAdded) isn't available Jan 7-8, 2027. |
Open | ||
| VIC-005 · Estimate · Bluesky | Netflix Q4 2026 results (War-game Wednesday scenario update after Q3) In Netflix's Q4 2026 report, Q4 revenue is at least $13,308M (99% of the $13,442M guide) AND FY2026 GAAP operating margin is at least 31.5%. Both = Hit; one = Partial; neither = Miss. Void if Netflix hasn't reported Q4 by Jan 31, 2027. |
Open | ||
| VIC-002 · Estimate · Bluesky | Schneider Electric FY2026 results, after agreeing to buy PTC (Signal Sunday running estimate) When Schneider reports FY2026 (scheduled Feb 18, 2027), organic revenue growth is at least 13% AND adjusted EBITA margin is at least 19.7%. Both legs = Hit; one leg = Partial; neither = Miss. |
Open |
Resolved calls
| ID | Call | Posted | Resolve by | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIC-011 · Estimate · Bluesky | Boston Scientific Q3 2026 results after the Aug 25 cyberattack (Tradecraft Tuesday running estimate: reading 8-K Item 8.01 vs 1.05 cyber disclosures, Quest Diagnostics as contrast) In Boston Scientific's Q3 2026 report (Oct 28, 2026, before the 8:00 AM ET call), reported net sales are below Q3 2025's $5,065M AND BSX discloses (Oct 28 release, Oct 28 call, or Q3 10-Q filed by Nov 6) an estimated incident hit to Q3 net sales of at least $250M (growth points convert at the $5,065M base; a range counts at its midpoint; no quantified Q3 figure = leg fails). Both = Hit; one = Partial; neither = Miss. Void if BSX hasn't reported Q3 2026 by Nov 6, 2026. |
Miss | news.bostonscientific.com www.investing.com |
||
| VIC-008 · Estimate · Bluesky | Microsoft Q1 FY27 results (SWOT Saturday running estimate: cloud/AI capex) In Microsoft's Q1 FY27 report (Oct 28, 2026, after the close), Azure revenue growth is at least 45% in constant currency (top of the 44-45% guide, new FY27 Azure definition per the Sep 2, 2026 segment 8-K) AND total GAAP revenue is at least $90.95B (top of the $89.85-90.95B range). Both = Hit; one = Partial; neither = Miss. Void if Microsoft hasn't reported by Nov 2, 2026. |
Hit | www.microsoft.com www.microsoft.com |
||
| VIC-004 · Estimate · Bluesky | Amazon Q3 2026 results, AWS segment (Tradecraft Tuesday running estimate on the Oct 20, 2025 us-east-1 outage post-mortem) In Amazon's Q3 2026 report (call Oct 29, 2026), AWS segment net sales are at least $44.6B (about 35% over Q3 2025's $33.0B) AND AWS segment operating margin (AWS operating income / AWS net sales) is at least 37.0%. Both legs = Hit; one = Partial; neither = Miss. Void if Amazon hasn't reported Q3 2026 by Nov 6, 2026 or no longer reports an AWS segment. |
Hit | ir.aboutamazon.com www.sec.gov |
||
| VIC-001 · Estimate · Bluesky | Netflix Q3 2026 results (SWOT Saturday running estimate) Netflix's reported Q3 2026 revenue lands within 1% of its $12.86B forecast ($12.73B-$12.99B) AND Q3 operating margin is at or above 32.5%. Both legs must hold for a Hit; one leg = Partial. |
Hit | ir.netflix.net |